Gold price outlook 2025: Comparing various assets’ returns in 2024, gold is one of those assets that has beaten the inflation rate by a huge margin. In the risky asset segment, the yellow metal left Nifty 50, BSE Sensex, and Bank Nifty far behind by delivering around 21 per cent YTD return in the domestic market. Hence, before entering the New Year 2025, investors and market experts are busy assessing the returns one can expect from the precious commodity.
According to commodity market experts, geopolitical tension dominated MCX gold rates throughout 2024 and will continue dominating the precious metal market next year. They said that Donald Trump’s re-entry into the White House is expected to escalate the trade war, which would work as fodder for the geopolitical crisis. His recent rants about China and BRICS nations are a glaring example. However, they maintained that US dollar rates would continue to remain strong. Hence, gold prices may not repeat such performance in 2025 but predicted better returns than frontline Indian stock market indices.
Trump 2.0 factor
Regarding how Donald Trump’s re-election as the US president would impact gold price movement in 2025, Prithviraj Kothari, National President at India Bullion and Jewellers Association (IBJA), said, “Trump 2.0 could have nuanced impacts on gold prices. His administration’s policies, including tariffs and a strong preference for protectionist trade measures, could bolster the US dollar. A stronger dollar typically poses a short-term challenge for gold, making the metal more expensive in other currencies.”
The MD of RiddiSiddhi Bullions Limited added, “Donald Trump’s tenure also brings heightened geopolitical and economic uncertainty, historically supporting gold demand. Trade tensions, potential conflicts, and unpredictable policies under his leadership might drive investors toward gold as a safe-haven asset. Thus, while a stronger dollar might pose headwinds, the overarching climate of uncertainty could offset these effects, maintaining gold’s appeal. The net impact will largely depend on the balance between these competing factors.”
Will gold beat the Indian stock market?
On whether gold prices would outperform the Indian stock market returns in 2025, Anuj Gupta, Head — of Commodity & Currency at HDFC Securities, said, “During Trump 2.0, especially in the first year of his second tenure, the stock market is expected to receive various hits due to the geopolitical tension. In such conditions, gold prices normally rise. However, this rise will be limited because the US dollar rates won’t cool down much. So, we believe there will be a close contest between gold and frontline stock market indices: Nifty 50, BSE Sensex and Bank Nifty in 2025 as both assets will be facing tough challenges from the US Treasury yields, US dollar, and virtual assets like Bitcoins.”
Gold price outlook for short term in 2025
“In the short-term, the MCX gold rate faces resistance at ₹76,800 per 10 gm level. On breaching above this hurdle, the yellow metal may touch the ₹78,000 mark. On the lower side, the MCX gold rate has immediate support at ₹76,000, while the crucial support is at the ₹75,300 mark. In the international market, gold prices have immediate support at the $2,600 per ounce level, whereas it faces hurdles at $2,650 and $2,680 per ounce. On the lower side, $2,560 is crucial for the precious yellow metal,” said Anuj Gupta of HDFC Securities.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts, experts, and brokerage firms, not Mint. We advise investors to consult certified experts before making any investment decisions.
