“We’ve come to expect equity-market returns with fixed-income-like consistency, which isn’t a reasonable expectation,” he said, adding, “We should temper both our return expectations—aiming for low double digits rather than mid-teens—and our expectations for consistency”.
Looking ahead to 2025, Khemka expects pre-tax market returns of 10-11%.
Edited excerpts:
To begin with, if you were to get ₹10 lakh, where would you invest?
Assuming all living expenses are covered, my approach is always the same. Essentially, all available money is entirely invested in the stock market. These days, my wife handles these investments based on standing instructions. If there happens to be any excess money, we invest it in mutual funds or other investment vehicles of WhiteOak. Occasionally, I even say jokingly that the only times my wife and I argue are when she might slip up and leave money idle in the bank for a few days instead of deploying it into the market. We are always fully invested in equities and have never prioritized fixed deposit as investment. So, that continues to be the case.
Considering what you said, how would you look at diversification, given that many have pointed out that diversification is key in a volatile market. So, how would you look at that?
Diversifying across asset classes comes at a cost. Equity has been the best-performing asset class over extended periods of time. Since I entered the markets in 1985, both personal experience and historical data show that equity markets deliver the highest long-term returns for passive investors. While running a business may yield higher returns, I firmly believe equity markets will continue to lead as investments. Our team also strives to generate returns above the market average, creating a total return that is hard to match in other asset classes. From my perspective, the additional returns from equity investments more than compensate for the lost diversification benefits.
I understand that you believe equity offers long-term superior returns and are quite optimistic about the asset class. However, given the past rally and current uncertainty, should investors consider tempering their return expectations?
It depends on what the return expectations are. However, at any point in time, if you ask me about expected returns over the next 12 months or any specific period, I would estimate low double digits on an annualized basis. That hasn’t changed, and it remains my base case expectation at this time, too.
It’s like flipping a coin ten times—my expectation would always be five heads and five tails. In reality, the outcome could be six-four, eight-two, or even ten-zero, but with enough flips, it averages out to 50-50. Similarly, Indian equity returns over a long period have consistently averaged in the low double digits if you look at the historical performance.
Looking ahead, I expect similar returns of low double digit, roughly 10-11%, pre-tax.
Many are worried about slowing earnings growth and the possibility of earnings downgrades. Do you share this concern?
Concerns are always present in the market; there’s never a time without them. People naturally look for risks, and there will always be something to focus on. These concerns aren’t new. It’s possible that, in the near term, with slightly slower economic growth last quarter, we could see this trend spill over into corporate earnings this quarter as well. However, that’s just part of the business cycle. Over the years, there have been periods of slower economic and earnings growth, followed by times of faster growth. If we experience slower growth in the coming months, it is entirely possible, but it does not necessarily mean the markets will perform poorly.
Do you think these factors are already priced in? Geopolitical concerns and elections were major worries—have we moved past them? What other concerns do you see, and has the possibility of earnings downgrades or slowing growth been factored in?
Yes, in my view, macro concerns are always factored in on a probabilistic basis—weighted by the likelihood of various outcomes. However, reality can sometimes turn out far worse or better than what the market has anticipated at a point in time. Also, what we think is priced in may differ significantly from what the market has actually accounted for.
For example, if we look back five years to the end of 2019 and if we were told everything that would unfold during covid-19, we might have expected markets to perform very poorly. Most people, including myself, could have been tempted to stay in cash or shift to safer asset classes. Yet, March 23, 2020, marked the market’s bottom, even when the total reported Covid-19 cases in India were only around 500, with approximately only 100 cases reported for that day. Despite the subsequent surge in cases, millions of deaths, and extended lockdowns, the market began rallying from March 24th onwards. Why? Because it had already factored in these outcomes and more. The market assessed the long-term impact of these developments on corporate cash flows and determined that the present value of those cash flows was not materially affected as one might have feared just a few days prior.
Since you brought up holding cash, some fund managers are currently maintaining cash levels as high as 50-80%. What’s your perspective on this?
Our team is always able to find opportunities. Forget about holding 50-80% cash – our team generally does not even have 50 to 80 basis points of cash in the portfolio, meaning we don’t even have 0.5% to 0.8% in cash on many of the days because we are fully invested.
We don’t make market timing calls; we are typically fully invested, with cash levels of less than 1%.
Our approach is that the market is fairly valued overall, but within that, some stocks will be overvalued and others undervalued. In a relative performance approach, it’s about identifying those undervalued names. To outperform the market and our peers, that’s what we focus on.
Has there ever been a time when you regretted being fully invested and not holding any cash?
I wouldn’t say regret, because I understand that market timing is not possible—this is my firm belief. Personally, or in portfolios, I was always fully invested at the peaks of 2000, during the Harshad Mehta bubble, at the 2008 peak, and just before Covid. Thankfully, I was also fully invested at the bottoms that followed those peaks. I’ve never felt I should have made a cash call, because I have resigned myself to the fact and the belief that markets cannot be timed, just like coin flips cannot be predicted.
Which sectors look appealing to you in 2025?
We firmly believe in the fair value of the market and maintain that it’s not possible to predict which sector will outperform another at aggregate level. Our base case assumption is that all sectors will perform in line with the market over the next 12 months. While we understand that the various sectors will not give the same returns in any given year, it is still the most logical ex-ante assumption to make.
That said, we may allocate more weight or less to certain sectors, either absolute or relative to the benchmark, based on where we see the most compelling bottom-up investment opportunities. For example, if most companies within a sector appear fairly valued in our assessment, we may choose to invest less in that sector, as the expected upside or downside is limited. On the other hand, if we see significant disparities in valuations within a sector—where some companies are highly overvalued and others highly undervalued—we may allocate more to that sector as we seek to capture the upside from the undervalued opportunities.
Currently, we are finding more of such opportunities in healthcare, information technology services, financials, consumption, and industrials. We have higher allocations in our portfolios in these areas, both collectively and individually.
So, the market is currently in a state of limbo, waiting for a clear direction. What are the key triggers that could provide that clarity and drive the market forward?
It depends on how you define “limbo.” If you look at it, we’re in one of the longest bull markets, with this bull market starting in March 2020, around March 23rd, and nearing five years now. I wouldn’t necessarily call it a limbo; I think we’ve been somewhat spoiled by the returns over the past five years. Even this year, the broader market (like the BSE 500) has had mid-teens returns, with small and mid-caps up by mid-20s. In the past couple of months, there’s been a slight dip, but that’s nothing abnormal.
We’ve come to expect equity market returns with fixed-income-like consistency, which isn’t a reasonable expectation. We should temper both our return expectations—aiming for low double digits rather than mid-teens—and our expectations for consistency. We’ve mostly seen upward volatility over the past five years, otherwise occasional pullbacks of 10-20% are within the realm of usual market movements.
Lastly, what are the common mistakes investors make throughout their investing journey, and how can they avoid them?
The biggest mistake retail investors make is not allocating enough to equities, followed by trying to time the market. For instance, during the Covid crisis, many pulled out of the market due to fear, only to re-enter much later at substantially higher levels. Trying to time the market based on macro developments often harms long-term returns. The key is to seek advice from financial advisers to decide on a comfortable equity allocation and stick with it over time. Avoid speculative trading or constantly changing your strategy based on short-term market movements or media headlines.
